Insights into Australia’s export outlook for 2019 from Efic
In Efic’s latest edition of World Risk Developments, economists Cassandra Winzenried and Fred Gibson provide insights into Australia’s export outlook for 2019, including risks and upside opportunities.
Resources, services and agricultural exports all recorded double-digit growth in 2018, with resources contributing to the lion share of Australia’s export
growth (Chart). But the Department of Industry expects energy and resource export earnings to fall 1.5% p.a. in 2019, led by declines in iron ore (↓8%),
thermal (↓15%) and metallurgical coal (↓14%). While export volumes are forecast to rise modestly, lower prices will result from new low-cost supply
and weaker demand. LNG is the exception with receipts expected to grow 16% in 2019 driven by both stronger volumes and prices.
Other topics featured in World Risk Developments:
- 2019 outlook—soft landing
- Risks to the 2019 export outlook
- Upside opportunities to the 2019 export outlook